Caught in the Crossfire: How Global Oil Wars Shape the Filipino Future

Most Filipinos would say: “Ano bang pakialam namin d’yan sa gyera na yan? Malayo naman yan sa atin.” The war feels far away, and we wonder why it should matter to us. But the truth is, even if the fighting happens in another part of the world, it still reaches our homes. Much of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz near Iran, any conflict there makes oil prices rise. Oil is traded globally, and when supply is disrupted, prices rise everywhere. That means higher transport fares, food prices increase, and high electricity bills for every Filipino family. Whether we like it or not, global conflicts affect our daily lives.

Recently, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. announced that the Philippines has about 60 days of fuel reserves. At first, this sounds reassuring, but it also makes us wonder. For years, we have heard that the Philippines has its own gas resources, like the Malampaya field, and that the government has invested so much in energy projects. So the question many of us ask is: where did those resources go? Malampaya has been declining, and while new reserves have been discovered, they are not yet fully developed. That is why we still depend heavily on imported oil.

To help save fuel and electricity, President Marcos Jr. ordered government offices to shift to a four-day workweek. Yes, this will help in the short term, but it also makes us ask: is this the best that the government can do? To only advise everyone to save energy? Saving energy is important, but what about long-term aid? What about real plans to make sure the Philippines can stand on its own in the future? Hindi mo rin maiwasan na mag-alala, because if leaders only give short-term advice, ordinary Filipinos will continue to suffer when the next crisis comes. Lagi na lang ba tayong naiipit sa mga nag-uumpugang mga bato, caught between the decisions of supreme leaders and powerful nations, while ordinary people pay the price?

This is not the first time this has happened to our country. Back in 2022, when the war between Russia and Ukraine broke out, global oil prices also went very high. The Philippines was hit hard, with gasoline and diesel prices reaching record levels. That crisis should have been a lesson for us to prepare better, but here we are again, being affected by another war. It shows that we did not learn enough from that experience, and ordinary Filipinos are once again carrying the burden.

When we look at our neighbors, we see that some Asian countries are already more prepared. Indonesia and Malaysia have strong domestic gas reserves. Singapore and Thailand invested in LNG terminals to secure long-term supply. Brunei has long relied on its own natural gas exports. These countries remind us that with proper planning, energy independence is possible.

I remember our class discussion in International Business and Trade with Dr. Kiram. We talked about how trade wars, political stability, and global conflicts affect international trade and foreign direct investment. The oil crisis is a clear example. A war in one part of the world can raise costs everywhere, even in countries far away like ours. Investors and businesses prefer to put money in places where resources are secure and prices are stable.

The Philippines has a trade deficit, which means we import more than we export. In simple words, we spend more money buying goods from other countries than we earn from selling our own products abroad. This problem gets worse during an oil crisis, because fuel imports are one of our biggest expenses. When global oil prices rise, the country spends more dollars just to buy the same fuel. A bigger trade deficit weakens our peso, raises inflation, and makes life harder for ordinary Filipinos. It also discourages foreign investors, since they see our economy as more vulnerable.

In 2025, the Philippines recorded a trade deficit of about $49.17 billion. Imports reached $133.57 billion, while exports were only $84.41 billion, even though electronics hit a record high. By January 2026, imports made up 61.1% of total trade, while exports were only 38.9%, leaving another deficit of $4.05 billion. These numbers show how dependent we are on imports, especially fuel. Every time oil prices rise, our peso weakens, inflation grows, and ordinary Filipinos feel the burden through higher transport fares, food prices, and electricity bills.

As an entrepreneurship student who dreams of building my own business in the future, these realities make me think hard. Is it really worth it to build a business in my country that does not seem to have long-term plans? Too often, those in power focus more on politics and self-interest than on the betterment of the country, not just today but for the future ahead. In Congress, instead of creating laws that protect all Filipinos and make life more convenient, many leaders spend more time on pamumulitika, gantihan ng kapangyarihan, kurapsyon, and many personal issues. This leaves ordinary people like us wondering if our leaders truly care about building a better future.

And then another question comes to mind: what will happen to all Filipinos if our gas supplies are exhausted? Where will we go? How will we survive? For those who come from poor families, like me, the impact would be even heavier. Without fuel, public transport would stop, food delivery would slow down, and electricity costs could skyrocket. Everyday life would become harder, especially for the poor who already struggle with high prices. Marami na naman ang sabaw sa instant noodles ngayon. This shows how important it is for the government to plan ahead, not just for today but for the future.

In the end, the US-Iran war reminds us Filipinos that global events are never too far away. They reach our wallets, our food, our transport, and even our work schedules. The government says we have enough fuel for two months, but prices will still rise. While some Asian countries already have sustainable systems, the Philippines must invest more seriously in energy independence and long-term planning. For us, this is not just about economics, it is about making sure that every Filipino family, and every aspiring entrepreneur, can build a future without fear of sudden shortages, rising costs, and the heavy burden of a growing trade deficit. That is why in the next election, we must choose leaders who truly understand the struggles of Filipinos and who care for the nation.